So it ends for the 2024 Patriots. They enter the final week of the season at home against the 13-3 Buffalo Bills. The Patriots, meanwhile, sit at 3-13. This will mark the 11th time in team history the Patriots will finish with a winning percentage below .300.
It happened last year, of course, when the team limped to a 4-13 record (.235) and secured the third pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. It also happened in 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1972, 1975, 1981, 1990 and 1992. In four of those seasons, the Patriots finished with a winning percentage below .200. Those came in 1970 (.142), 1981 (.125), 1990 (.063) and 1992 (.125).
If the Patriots lose, they will finish with the first pick in the upcoming NFL Draft for the fifth time in history (since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger); the previous four came in 1971, 1982, 1991 and 1993. They have made the first pick four times: 1971 (QB Jim Plunket), 1982 (DL Ken Sims), 1984 (traded up for WR Irving Fryar) and 1993 (QB Drew Bledsoe). The Pats traded out of the top spot in 1991.
If the Patriots lose this week, it will mark the second straight season that they only won a single home game. On the bright side, perhaps, is that their lone home win in 2023 came against the Bills when Mac Jones led a game-winning drive that culminated with a 1-yard touchdown pass to tight end Mike Gesicki with :15 left for a 29-25 win.
The Bills playoff seeding is secure heading into the final week of the season, so it is likely they will rest some of their key or nicked up starting players.
The fan base, however, might be rooting for a loss because of the flexibility the top draft pick might provide in terms of acquiring needs, of which there are obviously plenty. That’s a story for another time, but this week does present an interesting dynamic for both teams.
Every repetition that rookie quarterback Drake Maye gets this season is part of his development, but he suffered a concussion earlier this season and had “his bell rung” last week in an unpenalized helmet-to-helmet hit. So keeping him healthy heading into his first NFL offseason should also be a priority. Additionally, it would not be a terrible idea to take a look at rookie quarterback Joe Milton in a meaningless season finale. It will be interesting to see how the Patriots approach that.
Keep in mind that it isn’t the preseason, and rosters have only 55 players with 48 active on game day so it isn’t like a team can simply rest all its starters. Buffalo has made it clear that quarterback Josh Allen will start to maintain his consecutive starts streak, but he won’t play long. But many of their regular players will have to play.
The series between the two teams is long and storied dating back to 1960 when both were members of the American Football League’s Eastern Division. In fact, the Patriots first ever postseason game was at Buffalo’s War Memorial Stadium in a tie-breaking playoff to reach the AFL Championship Game. The Patriots won that game, 26-8, on Dec. 28, 1963, before losing the title game to the Chargers, 51-10.
The Patriots still lead the series, 78-51-1, but have lost eight of the last 10, including a close game two weeks ago – one in which Buffalo pulled it out, 24-21, in Orchard Park, N.Y.
New England dominated Buffalo during its dynasty years. Between 2001 and 2019, the Patriots compiled a 34-4 record against the Bills, including a streak of 15 straight wins.
New England won 11 straight AFC East titles during that stretch and won 17 of 19 overall. The Bills just captured their fifth straight division title.
The Bills are now the AFC East team to beat.
The series:
- The Patriots lead the all-time series, 78-51-1
- The Patriots longest winning streak against the Jets is 15 games (2003-2010)
- The Bills longest winning streak against New England is nine games (1971-1975)
- The Patriots are 40-24 at home and 38-27-1 on the road in the series
- There have been six overtime games in the series and New England is 2-4 in those games
- Buffalo has won 8-of-10 in the series
- The series dates to Sept. 23, 1960 (a 13-0 Bills win in Boston)
- The Bills largest margin of victory is 35 (45-10 road win on Nov. 1, 1970)
- The Patriots largest margin of victory is 46 (56-10 road win on Nov. 18, 2007)
