It’s a trip to Buffalo in December so unpredictability is always in play. It’s also the 130th meeting between the Bills and Patriots. While it might be easy to shrug off unpredictability in a game featuring the 11-3 AFC East-leading Bills against the 3-11 Pats, one only need go back a season when the struggling Patriots shocked the Bills with a last-minute touchdown to capture a 29-25 win at Gillette Stadium. The Pats finished 4-13 last year while Buffalo finished 11-6 before losing a Divisional Playoff game to Kansas City.
It certainly isn’t unprecedented for a struggling team to upset a major contender. Just ask the 2004 New England Patriots, who, at 12-2, went to Miami and lost to the 2-11 Dolphins. The Patriots went on to repeat as Super Bowl champions a few weeks later.
So you’re saying there’s a chance? Of course, but the tide has most certainly turned in this series. Between 2000 and 2019, the Patriots were 35-5 against the Bills, including 17-2 in Orchard Park, N.Y. But since 2020, New England is 2-7 against Buffalo. There is a late-season 14-10 Pats win in upstate New York among those two wins, but wind and weather was a major factor that day as Patriots quarterback Mac Jones attempted only three passes in a 14-10 win.
This will be Drake Maye’s first trip to Highmark Stadium and the weather will not greet him with open arms. The high temperature Sunday is supposed to be around 17 degrees. Not that New England isn’t used to playing in the cold, but playing at Buffalo after Halloween often seems to include snow squalls or even blizzard conditions. Even if that’s not historically factual, it sure feels that way anecdotally.
The Bills, meanwhile, are enjoying an MVP-caliber season from veteran quarterback Josh Allen, which makes an upset all-the-more improbable as Buffalo holds out hope it can earn the AFC’s top seed. With that playoff bye in play, it would be hard to imagine the Bills overlooking the limping Patriots.
Before Bill Belichick and Tom Brady rolled into New England, this series was as tight as one might expect from two long-time rivals that first met in the American Football League in 1960. Between 1960 and 1999, the Patriots held a tight, 41-38-1 series edge.
There certainly have been some memorable matchups in this century despite the Patriots dominance of it for two decades. The Patriots won, 12-9, in overtime at Buffalo in Brady’s first start there back in 2001. New England was navigating its way to a playoff bye and eventual Super Bowl championship when, in OT, Pats wide receiver David Patten caught a pass and was crushed along the sideline. He fumbled, and Buffalo scooped up the loose ball and raced to an apparent victory. But because Patten, who appeared knocked out, had his leg in contact with the ball while his head was out of bounds, the ball was ruled out of bounds. The Patriots maintained possession and Antowain Smith took his next carry 38 yards to the Bills 3-yard line to set up Adam Vinatieri’s game-winning field goal.
Two years later, the Patriots opened the season at Buffalo five days after New England released popular safety Lawyer Milloy, who immediately signed with the Bills. Brady threw four interceptions in that game, including one that was deflected by Milloy to a teammate. The Bills rolled to a 31-0 win.
The 2007 Patriots buried many teams, but none more so than Buffalo in Orchard Park, where they won, 56-10. Brady threw five touchdown passes, including four to Randy Moss while completing 31-of39 passes for 373 yards.
The Patriots won 15-of-16 road games against the Bills between 2004 and 2019. This decade, however, hasn’t been so kind. The Patriots are 1-3 in Buffalo in the last four, and the 2024 season has provided little hope the Patriots can buck the current trend.
But we’re still saying there’s a chance.
The series:
- The Patriots lead the all-time series, 78-50-1
- The Patriots longest winning streak against the Jets is 15 games (2003-2010)
- The Bills longest winning streak against New England is nine games (1971-1975)
- The Patriots are 40-24 at home and 38-26-1 on the road in the series
- There have been six overtime games in the series and New England is 2-4 in those games
- Buffalo has won 7-of-9 in the series
- The series dates to Sept. 23, 1960 (a 13-0 Bills win in Boston)
- The Bills largest margin of victory is 35 (45-10 road win on Nov. 1, 1970)
- The Patriots largest margin of victory is 46 (56-10 road win on Nov. 18, 2007)
